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              8月25日北京大學周曉華教授來我院線上講座預告
              ( 來源:   發布日期:2020-08-23 閱讀:次)

              講座題目:Estimation of Incubation Period and Generation Time Based on Observed Length-biased Epidemic Cohort with Censoring for COVID-19 Outbreak in China 

              主講人周曉華教授  北京大學

              講座時間:2020年8月25日(周二)上午10:00—12:00

              參與方式:騰訊會議會議 ID:242 900 658;

              會議直播網址: https://meeting.tencent.com/l/NuevrV3FCEy0

              主講人簡介:

              周曉華教授是北京⼤學講席教授,國家海外高層次人才入選者。北京⼤學⽣物統計系主任,北京⼤學統計科學中⼼副主任, 北京⼤學北京國際數學研究中⼼⽣物統計及⽣物信息實驗室主任,北京⼤數據研究院中醫⼤數據中⼼主任。國際⽣物統計學會中國分會 (IBS-China) 理事長,中國現場統計研究會⽣物醫學統計學會會長,美國科學促進會(AAAS)會⼠(Fellow), 美國統計學會(ASA)會⼠(Fellow),數理統計學會(IMS)會⼠ (Fellow), 國際統計研究院會⼠(Member)。美國聯邦政府⾷品和藥物管理局(FDA)醫療器械和放射健康顧  問委員會委員。榮獲美國聯邦政府授予的研究⽣涯科學家獎、中國國家⾃然科學基⾦委海外杰青, 中國教育部⾼層次⽂教專家、中國教育部海外名師等榮譽稱號,獲美國統計學會貝葉斯分析科學分會及國際貝葉斯統計科學學會Mitchell 獎,中國產學研合作創新獎, SCIENCE CHINA-Mathematics 評選的年度優秀論⽂獎。研究⽅向主要集中于醫學診斷學的統計⽅法,隨機臨床試驗中的設計及統計⽅法,因果推斷分析⽅法, 醫療⼤數據,缺失數據,新興傳染病的數學和統計建模, 腦科學,衛⽣經濟,衛⽣服務, 中醫藥研究等領域發展新的統計⽅法,做出了許多重要貢獻,在國際頂尖的統計和⽣物統計期刊 J. R. Statist. Soc. B, JASA、Biometrika、Annals of Statistics, Biometrics, Statistics in Medicine 等發表 SCI 學術論⽂ 260 余篇, 其中 130 余篇是第⼀或通信作者。先后任⽣物統計學頂尖期刊, Biometrics, Statistics in Medicine, Journal of American Statistical Association - Theory and Method 副編輯,也是國際⽣物統計學會中國分會會刊,Biostatistics & Epidemiology, 主編。

              講座摘要:

              The incubation period and generation time are key characteristics in the analysis of infectious diseases. The commonly used contact-tracing based estimation of incubation distribution is highly influenced by the individuals’ judgment on the possible date of exposure, and might lead to significant errors. On the other hand, interval censoring based methods are able to utilize a much larger set of traveling data but may encounter biased sampling problems. The distribution of generation time is usually approximated by observed serial intervals. However, it may result in a biased estimation of generation time, especially when the disease is infectious during incubation. In this paper, the theory from renewal process is partially adopted by considering the incubation period as the inter-arrival time, and the duration between departure from Wuhan and onset of symptoms as the mixture of forward time and inter-arrival time with censored intervals. In addition, a consistent estimator for the distribution of generation time based on incubation period and serial interval is proposed for incubation-infectious diseases. A real case application to the current outbreak of COVID-19 is implemented. The basic reproduction number in the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak based on the proposed generation time estimation is estimated to be 2.96 (95% CI: 2.15, 3.86).   This is a joint work with Drs.  Deng, You, Liu, and Qin.


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